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"content": "Warsaw, 02/03/2020 RAU Input to the Main part of the RABIT OpPlan 3. DESCRIPTION AND GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION Background Owing to its geographical location, Turkey has been one of the most important entry points for migrants, who intend to reach the European Union (EU). Moreover, as of the end of October 2019, Turkey’s Ministry of Interior estimated that around 4.9 million migrants are in Turkey, of which over 3.6 million are Syrians. The implementation of the EU-Turkey statement from March 2016, with its stipulation that the Turkish authorities are to effectively patrol their borders and territories both at land and sea, has significantly reduced the number of migrants who managed to leave Turkey and enter the EU illegally Justification 1 Nevertheless, in 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean route – which is comprised of the Greek and Bulgarian land borders and the Greek sea borders with Turkey, as well as the route from Turkey to Cyprus – registered a 46% increase, with more than 82 000 migrant detections, and ranked first among all the migratory routes. The very intense migratory pressure on the Greek Aegean islands mainly contributed to this major increase despite the 40% decrease on the Greek land border with Turkey and notwithstanding the significant number of preventions by the Turkish authorities both at sea and on the land borders. Justification 1 Justification 1 In 2019, 23 persons have reportedly lost their lives (35 during the implementation of the JO) while crossing the sea. According to IOM reports (which also include figures from Turkish sources), in 2019, 71 fatalities were registered in the Eastern Mediterranean (132 during the implementation of the JO). The procedure for registration and identification of migrants in the hotspots is well established, and nearly all migrants (98.8%) were registered properly in 2019. 0.72% of the persons screened were assumed by screeners to have falsely claimed their nationality. Justification 1 Latest developments On 28 February 2020, after a military conflict in Idlib (Syria), the Turkish authorities discontinued migration controls in the Aegean region at land and sea borders. Immediately, migrants from Edirne and other regions of the country - mainly from Istanbul - travelled by bus, taxi or cars to the Greek-Turkish border. Turkey announced that nearly Justification 3 100 000 would-be migrants approached the Greek borders. Frontex - European Border and Coast Guard Agency www.frontex.europa.eu | Pl. Europejski 6, 00-844 Warsaw, Poland | Tel. +48 22 205 95 00 | Fax +48 22 205 95 01",
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"content": "LIMITED - Releasable to EU law enforcement only Due to the specificity of the border types, the migrants first primarily approached the land borders between Greece and Turkey. According to various sources, the number of migrants who gathered at the land borders reached 4 000 – 30 000; however, Greece immediately closed its borders by strengthening the enforcement capacities, deployed the army and suspended the possibility to apply for asylum for one month. According to operational sources, . Justification 1 With improving weather conditions on 1 March 2020, however, a substantial wave of migrant flows reached the northern Hotspot Islands (Lesbos, Chios and Samos). In one day approximately 1 500 arrivals were reported in 31 incidents. Forecast Based on operational and open source information, the following forecast can be made: In the event of a failure to cross the Greek-Turkish land border, the migrants will move to the sea areas : The arrival of the migrants will be determined by actual local weather conditions Justification 3 Conclusion It is recommended to deploy CPVs and CPBs with extended SAR capacities in the above mentioned corridors. It is further recommended to deploy TVVs equipped with thermo-vision cameras that are operational in the maritime environment. In order to minimize the risk of migrants travelling further to the Greek mainland or to other Schengen countries (secondary movements) undetected, Justification 2 As the identification and registration of all migrants on the Hotspot Islands is of critical importance, no transfers from islands other than the Hotspot Islands should be made to the Greek mainland. Also, the extra deployment staff should be working in 2 or 3 shifts per day, in order to maximize the utilization of the work spaces, facilities and already deployed equipment Justification 4 Factors that may impact the operational area This possible situation should be permanently monitored and could lead to the need of an operational response. Justification 5 Coronavirus (COVID-19) The massive influx from Turkey coincides with the COVID-19 outbreak, which heavily affected Iran, more specifically Tehran and its neighborhood, i.e. the region where a significant number of migrants along the Eastern Mediterranean Route have transited or will transit on their way to Turkey. Currently, it takes 6-10 weeks on average for migrants that leave Iran to reach the Greek Hotspot Islands. Taking into account this time delay, there is a risk that some of the migrants that are reaching the Greek islands may be carriers of the virus and infect others. The conditions in which the Justification 1 migrants live in the hotspots migrants, in closed environment and often in weakened physical state, could facilitate the spread the virus affecting those groups whose physical resistance is lower Reg. No 2455/2020 2/3",
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"content": "LIMITED - Releasable to EU law enforcement only Justification 1 Fatalities Crossing the Aegean Sea in winter is in itself more dangerous in harsh weather. The sudden increase of the flow from Turkey, however, may further increase the potential of casualties, as migrants may board unseaworthy dinghies and in higher number than their recommended capacities. Furthermore, based on news that local residents on the Aegean islands tried to prevent migrants from disembarking, Justification 3 Justification 1 Justification 1 Reg. No 2455/2020 3/3",
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