LIMITED :=: FRONTEX Ill                                                                          JO POSEIDON 2018 BIWEEKLY ANALYTICAL UPDATE EUROPEAN BORDER AND COAST GUARD AGENCY 12 –25 March 2018 (weeks 11– 12), Ref. 6470/2018                                                                                      28 March 2018 Number of IBC, weeks 1-12. 1 5200 200 3970 ·800 2017              2018 Main Nationalities 2018 Arrivals on the main islands 2018 Lesbos                                 50% Samos                 23% Chios  -     6% Kos  -        10% Leros  ■ 2% Megisti  I 1% Others   -      8% Key points    4 505 irregular migrants were apprehended in the first 12 weeks of 2018; this is a 12% increase compared with the same period of 2017 (3 970 apprehensions).    In weeks 11 -12 of 2018, 908 migrants were registered, which equates to a 4% decrease compared with the same period of 2017 (945 arrivals) and a 12% increase compared with weeks 9 – 10 of 2018 (803 arrivals).    Turkey detected and intercepted (third-country actions) roughly 460 would-be migrants in the period under re- view.    About 10% of the checked documents upon arrival by Greek authorities and FRONTEX personnel , were identified ei- ther false or stolen.    Migrants argue that a protracted stay on a Greek island is preferable over remaining in Turkey due to the availability of social services, financial aid and subsequent employment opportunities in Greece (source EXOP).    200 migrants were prevented from leaving Turkey as a result of a combined operation between TCG and Jandarma. Limited: “information which is sensitive and limited for use within the European Union Institutions, other offices and agencies established by virtue of or on the basis of the Treaties, EU Member States and public administrations; Distribution on a need to know basis. Not for public dissemination”

LIMITED Main trends In the first 12 weeks of 2018, a total of 4 505 irregular      terms of monthly arrivals which has been consistent since migrants were apprehended. This equates to an 12% in-          September 2017 through the first months in 2018. Never- crease compared with the same period in 2017 when 3            theless, by seasonality (Fig.1) an increase can be expected. 970 irregular migrant apprehensions were reported. In weeks 11 - 12 of 2018, 908 irregular migrants were ap- prehended in 22 incidents; this equates to a 12% increase                     Monthly arrivals 2016-2018 compared with weeks 9 - 10 (803 arrivals). The current         6000              ■   2016 ■ 2017 ■ 2018 trend in arrivals in operational areas ‘J’ and ‘K’ is heavi-   5000 ly influenced by weather conditions and the level of pa- 4000 trolling carried out by the Turkish authorities. 3000 In both weeks under analysis, the weather conditions were not particularly favourable for sea crossings in the northern  2000 part of the Eastern Aegean (near Lesbos, Chios and Samos 1000 Islands); slightly better in week 11. The number of arri- vals reduced nearly be half in the subsequent week; (586)         0 in week 11 and (322) week 12.                                         May Jun    Jui  Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan       Feb Mar The migrants tried to cross the Aegean sea whenever the         Figure 1:Decrease in the monthly trend of arrivals since weather conditions improved offering a window of oppor-         September 2017. tunity. There has been a continued decreasing trend in The Turkish Coast Guard has been actively patrolling the departure areas during the reporting period. In weeks 11 and 12, Turkey announced the prevention of departure of 460 would be migrants (third-country actions), while the Hellenic au- thorities did not report any detections to the Turkish authorities (Fig.2). Since January they have already intercepted 6 779 migrants; of them, 790 have been detected by the Hellenic Coast Guard or the assets deployed by Frontex. Addition- ally, the Turkish Land Forces announced 8 594 apprehensions along the Turkish-Syrian land border (Weeks 11 -12). It must be noted that these figures cannot be interpreted as the full pressure along that border, because in many cases mi- grants are detected but not apprehended or processed, meaning that multiple attempts of the same persons may occur even the same day. Distribution of actions by GRC/Frontex and Turkey 1        2         3         4         5         6       7          8         9        10        11       12 January                                February                                     March ■   Apprehensions              ■  Preventions of departure                  ■ Third-country actions Figure 2:Chart showing the weekly distribution of actions of the Greek and Turkish authorities since January 2017 2

LIMITED Main nationalities In weeks 11 - 12, 47% of the detected migrants were Syri-                       it should be mentioned that increase in number of XXA/ an nationals (428 persons), followed by Iraqi (24%, 222                         KWT is only indicative as persons who claim to be state- persons) and Afghan (8%, 69 persons).                                           less from Kuwait are identified to have a different nation- The table in Figure 3 shows changes regarding the arrival of                    ality at a later stage in the screening process. the top nationalities, in biweekly timeframes, from weeks 1-2 to weeks 11-12. While there were no major changes recorded for the main nationalities SYR and IRQ nationals, Figure 3: Chart showing the biweekly trend in arrivals of the top nationalities of apprehended migrants Nationality week 01-02 week 03-04 week 05-06 week 07-08 week 09-10 week 11-12                                                                      Trend SYR IRQ 231 260 105 110 208 217 325 225 330 224 428 222 --- ~ ~ PAK                       6                   0                    0          0               0                      0 AFG                     115                 88                    70         118             74                     69 XXA/KWT                  24                 21                    12         19               0                     50 PSE DZA 11 20 9 5 24 9 32 22 10 11 33 10             ............. --  ~ IRN                      15                110                     6         12              31                      8             .,,.,....- MAR                      13                   5                    6          6               1                      7 Others                  174                 55                    63         81              122                    81 The graphs in figure 4 illustrate the weekly number of arrivals of the main nationalities and the proportional share in per- centage. In terms of main nationalities, thus far in 2018 36% of the apprehended migrants have been SYR nationals, fol- lowed by IRQ (29%) and AFG (12%). In February Syrian nationals were on top followed by Iraqi nationals, which kept con- sistent also in March without any change in pattern. In March 714 Syrian migrants were registered a 62% increase com- pared to February 445. The number of Iraqi migrants also increased at a lower rate by 15% (352 in February and 411 in March). Notably, the number of arrivals of nationalities from different East and West Africans has slightly increased in March when compared to February In 2018, 50% of the migrants have been registered on Lesbos, 23% on Samos, 10% on Kos and 6% on Chios. While in February Lesbos registered 42% of the migrants, in March the percentage went up to 56%. Meanwhile, in February and March, Samos reported 33% and 14%, respectively. Notably, the share of Kos was nearly 20% in February, and in March it dropped down to 8%. According to operational information, the highest number of migrants apprehended in weeks 11 - 12 in operational area ‘J’ was registered on Lesbos: 570 migrants. The main nationalities were: SYR (321), IRQ (76), AFG (68) and others (105). There were no arrivals reported in In operational area ‘K’. Figure 4: Graphs showing the monthly number of arrivals and total share of the main nationalities. Number of Arrivals                                                                      Total Share 700                                                                             100% 90% 600 80% 500                                                                              7(J'lo 6fJ'/4 400 SfJ'/4 300                                                                              40% 200                                                                              3fJ'/4 20% 100                                                                              lfJ'/4 0 wl  w2    w3      w4     wS    w6     w7     w8      w9    wlO  wll w12              w2    w3      w4     wS      w6    w7     w8        w9      wlO wll w12 ■ Syrian Arab Republic ■ Iraq  ■ Afghanistan   ■ Others                         ■ Syrian Arab Republic   ■ Iraq ■ Afghanistan       ■ Others 3

LIMITED Main findings Forged and Counterfeit Documents                           some of the conclusions related to the East Mediterranean The majority of irregular migrants who reach Greece aim    Route: to travel further north to other EU countries either once  Major Relevant Developments: Sea routes to Greece, es- they get the necessary documents or after procuring fake   pecially those to the Greek islands, continue to be viewed travel documents( Fig.5). The latter type of documents     with skepticism in the analysed Arabic-language social are either purchased in Turkey prior to their departure or media due to the delay in reaching the European main- otherwise bought at a later stage on the Greek Islands or  land. Yet, many migrants argue that a protracted stay on the Mainland. Greece is mostly considered by the mi-    on a Greek island is preferable over remaining in Turkey grants as a stepping stone, and for some an opportunity to due to the availability of social services, financial aid and earn some money before continuing their journey to west-   subsequent employment opportunities in Greece. ern and northern Europe, especially Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom.                                    Sea Routes to Greece: Smugglers continue to offer sea routes from Turkey’s Antalya Province to Kastellorizo Figure 5: About About 10%  of the 1Cf of the checked checked documents documents upon upon arrival, result amval,   re ult to to be be either false or either fal~e or stolen stolen                Island and from Muğla Province to Kos. Occasionally, routes to the islands of Chios and Lesbos figure in social media as well. Prices range between 500 and 1,600 EUR depending on the type of vessel. Frequently, discounts are offered to specific traveler categories or to groups and families. In one case, a 50 per cent discount was of- fered for children under the age of 10, while children under the age of five were offered free passage. Advice on behavior as a Migrant with Forged Documents: In social media groups which focus on document provision, migrants occasionally post recommendations regarding behaviour as a migrant who lacks identity documents or who holds only forged documents. Among these recom- However, leaving Greece is not as easy as most of the      mendations are: avoid gatherings in public places, prefer migrants have been told or anticipated. It often takes     car over bus travel, adopt a respectful approach to neigh- several months and there are some migrants who lost        bours, avoid falsifying other documents, avoid staying hope of leaving Greece after a number of failed attempts   near mosques after prayers, avoid harassing women and to leave the country with forged passports and identity    avoid walking in groups and talking loudly. cards. Some migrants believe that to obtain a refugee passport    TCG intercept 165 irregular migrants instead of an ordinary one issued by any EU member state   Turkish Coast Guard detected in the Province of Mersin, a is more advantageous since a person who does not speak     wooden boat (Fig.6) carrying 165 Syrian irregular mi- the language of the issuing state of the document would    grants, including 72 males, 30 females, 63 children. While raise immediate suspicion to the authorities.              the operation was ongoing, the TCG informed the Jandar- In 2018 (weeks 1-11) there was an increase of migrants     ma, the authority responsible for land operations. In con- trying to fly from Greece to other EU MS/SAC airports      nection to this incident, road controls were set up in the with fraudulent documents in comparison with the same      regional area of Mersin where a suspicious truck was period in 2017. in 2017 106 persons were detected while    stopped with 27 in 2018 a total of 256 persons were stopped on exit at     irregular Syrian mi- Greek airports (largely SKG and ATH – 142 and 106 re-      grants (14 males, 11 spectively) on their attempt to fly mostly to Germany      females, 2 chil- and, to a lesser extent, to the Netherlands.               dren). Monthly Social Media As mentioned in the latest report prepared by EXOP in reference to the social media activities conducted by Ara- bic- speaking individuals and groups discussing issues re- Figure 6: Wooden boat ‘ALBATROS-S ’ intercepted by TCG lated to migration to Europe, the following extracts are   (source FRONTEX FLO Ankara) 4

LIMITED Annex: Statistics weeks 11-12 (12 – 25 March 2018) In 2018 (1 January - 25 March 2018) 117         Incidents related to irregular migration occurred. 4 505         Irregular migrants were apprehended. Main nationalities: SYR (1 635), IRQ (1 313), AFG (534) and XXA/KWT (126). 18        Incidents on prevention of departure, with an estimated 790 would-be migrants at sea. 32        People smugglers were arrested. 12        Smugglers of goods were arrested. 10        Persons were refused entry. 16        Fatalities were reported. 55        SAR operations, involving the rescue of 2 093 persons. 2 476         Persons were saved by Frontex-deployed assets (60% of the total rescued). The main landing points: Lesbos (2 233), Samos (1 052), Kos (442), and Chios (287). 44%         Of the migrants were detected in land, 56% at sea. The Reporting Points (secondary movements towards Italy) reported 466 incidents involving 1 141 irreg- ular migrants and 38 people smugglers. Two persons attempted to avoid border control, 163 persons were involved in document fraud, and 892 clandestine migrants were apprehended. From the beginning of the operation on 1 February to 25 March 2018 Incidents related to irregular migration occurred (85 in operational area ‘J’ and 2 in operational area 87 ‘K’). 2 816         Irregular migrants were apprehended. The main nationalities: SYR (1 159), IRQ (763), AFG (328), and PSE (85). 8       Incidents on prevention of departure, with an estimated 400 would-be migrants at sea. 18        People smugglers were arrested. 4       Smugglers of goods were arrested. 8       Person was refused entry. 34        SAR operations, involving the rescue of 1 504 persons. The main landing points: Lesbos (1410), Samos (627), Kos (373), Leros (78) and Chios (107) During the reporting period 12 – 25 March 2018 (weeks 11 – 12) 22        Incidents related to irregular migration occurred. 908         Irregular migrants were apprehended. Main nationalities: SYR (428), IRQ (222), AFG (69) and XXA/KWT (50). No Incidents on prevention of departure of would-be migrants at sea. 2       People smugglers were arrested. No Person was refused entry. 7       SAR operations were launched, involving the rescue of 385 persons. The main landing points: Lesbos(570),Kos (122), RU Agathonisi (114), Chios(58) and RU Megisiti (27). The Reporting Points (secondary movements towards Italy) reported 54 incidents involving 121 irregular migrants and 2 people smugglers. 19 person attempted to avoid border control, 19 persons were in- volved in document fraud, and 92 clandestine migrants were apprehended. Disclaimer: all the figures in this report including those in the tables and charts are based on data extracted from the Joint Operation Reporting Application (JORA) as of 26 Mar 2018, at 15:00 hrs and and are subject to change due to the continuous processing of inci- dents. Statistics related to Turkish actions are sourced from Turkish Coast Guard publications. Frontex Operations Division Risk Analysis Unit +48 22 205 95 00 5 Warsaw, Poland www.frontex.europa.eu