2008 Annual Risk Analysis Report - Part 1
* * ** FRONTEX LIBERTAS SECURITAS JUSTITIA Furop1.:a11 t\g..::11cy for thl· Managc.;mcnt of Operational Coopcrat1011 at the Extc.,;rnal Ron.lcrs of the Member States of the 1:uropca11 lJ11io11 Annual Risk Assessment 2008 Risk Analysis Unit Reference: R012/2720 (Revised version of R011/2511) Copy Number: Warsaw, March 2008
Justification 4 Note Executive Summary In 2007, the main areas in Europe identified as highly affected by illegal migration according to the number of detections and apprehensions of illegal migrants were: • Land borders in South-Eastern Europe, • Air borders in North and West Europe, • Sea borders in South and South-Eastern Europe, The detections at the land borders were more than half of the total number of detections at all the borders. Taken Into account that Romanian and Bulgarian nationals have not been included in the statistics on migration as from 2007, the overall situation shows a status quo or a slight upward trend . The general situation at the sea borders improved and the number of detected illegal migrants declined. However, the situation at the southern maritime borders remains a source of serious concern. The number of detections at the air borders went up compared to 2006. In total more than 130,000 Third Country nationals were refused entry to the EU in 2007. Most of the refusals wara mada at the land and air borders. Member States detained over 20,000 Third Country nationals using false or falsified travel documents. More than 11 ,500 suspected facilitators were detected by Member States Border Guard authorities. More than half of the detections took place inland and one quarter at the land borders of the Member States. In total, the Member States reported more than 250,000 detections of illegal stay in 2007. Italy reported the highest number with more than 50,000 detections. Most Member States reported illegal stay inland only and not at the exit checks. The Member States reported almost 150,000 asylum claims in 2007. Almost one fourth of them were made in Sweden, followed by Greece and the UK. Most asylum claims were filed by Iraqi nationals followed by nationals from the Russian Federation claiming to be of Chechen origin. The pressure of illegal migration towards Europe remains high on the Western African and Central African routes. Facilitators have also provided new embarkation points and modi operandi for sea crossings. The flow of illegal migrants from Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Eastern Mediterranean and Eastern Balkan route increased. It is assessed that especially Turkish OCGs have profited from the situation .
Justification 4 and 10 The number of by illegal migrants using the Eastern European route is falling but still significant especially at the The number of illegal migrants from Iraq increased markedly also on air routes in 2007. Iraqi nationals targeted a large variety of air routes towards Europe with interdiction points including Istanbul, Amman, Kuala Lumpur and Damascus, Moscow and Kiev. Also most of the asylum claims at the air borders were made by Iraqi nationals. Brazilian nationals were by far the most refused nationals at the air borders. They were reported by the airports of the UK, Portugal, France and Ireland. Chinese nationals were refused entry all over the EU Almost 12,000 false of falsified documents were detected at the Member States' air borders. Nigerian, Chinese and Iraqi nationals were detected most often using false or falsified documents. Counterfeiting, forgery, alteration or fraudulent use of travel or ID documents by South American illegal migrants is an upward trend. Illegal migration to Europe continues to be driven above all by lack of economic opportunities in Third Countries particularly when combined with population explosion, regional conflicts and suppression of ethnic/religious/political minorities. Economic collapse, war or environmental disaster in Europe's neighbouring areas could lead to a sudden and substantial increase in the number of migrants. Ethnic communities continue to attract illegal migrants. Besides economical situation and job opportunities, Member States' legal and policy situation/changes also drive or restrain illegal migration. Visa regulation, border control policy, geography, transportation connections and presence of organised crime (OC) networks in the EU and the main transit countries, especially in the neighbouring area, are the main factors influencing migration routes and modi operandi. Based on the above mentioned factors and the situation at the external borders in 2007, it is expected that: • The number of illegal migrants coming to the EU is likely either to stay at the current level or increase slightly. • The pressure of illegal migration and the risk of loss of life will remain high at the southern maritime borders. • The number of illegal migrants taking air route to the EU will continue to grow. 3 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 6 2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Data Collection ................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 'Look into the Future' ...................................................................................................... 8 3 SITUATION AT THE EXTERNAL EU BORDERS IN 2007 ................................... 10 3.1 Illegal Border Crossings ............................................................................................... 10 3.1.1 Land Borders .... ........ ..... ..... ... .. .......... ..... ..... .... .......... .. ........ ............. ... .... ................. ......... ......... .... ... 11 3.1.2 Sea Borders ....... ........ ....... .... .. .......... ... ... ... .... ... .... .. .. ..... ........... ... ..... ..... ...... ............ ........... ......... ..... 12 3.1.3 Air Borders .. ..... .. ...... .. ..... ................ ...... ............ .......... .. ...... .. ...... .. ....... .... .... ..... .............. ........ .......... 13 3.1.4 Nationalities ..... ... ...... ......... ..... .... ............ .. .......... ... ...................................... ... ........... ............ ............ 13 3.1.5 Pressure at the External Borders of the Member States .... ........... .... ...... ........ ......... ........ ....... ......... 14 3.2 Refusals of Entry ........................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Detections of False or Falsified Documents .................... ............ ................................ 16 3.4 Suspected Facilitators ................................................................................................... 18 3.5 Illegal Stay ...................................................................................................................... 20 3.6 Asylum Claims ............................................................................................................... 22 4 MAIN ROUTES TO THE EU .............................................................................. .. .. 24 4.1 Western African Route ........................ .......................................................................... 24 4.1.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities ..... .................................. .. ....... ............ ........ ... .. .. ... .... ... ... .... ... .... ... ... 24 4.1.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi ... ... .. .................................. .. ..... ....... ......... .... ........... .. ... .......... .... ...... 25 4.2 Central Mediterranean Route ........................................................................................ 25 4.2.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities ... .... .. .... .... ....................... ... ....... .... ............. .... ... ........... ...... ........ ...... 25 4.2.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi .. ... ............ ... .... .... .. ... .......... ....... ......... ........ ............ .......... ..... ........... 27 4.3 Eastern Mediterranean Route ....................................................................................... 28 4.3 .1 Nexus Points and Nationalities ...... ......... ...... .... ..... ........ ........ .... ..... .. .. .... ....... ......... ... ....... ... ............. 28 4.3.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi ...... ...... ... ..... ... ........ ....... ..... .. .... .. ........ .......... ........ ... ..... .... .. .... .......... 29 4.4 Eastern Balkan Route .................................................................................................... 30 4.4 .1 Nexus Points and Nationalities .... .. ... .......... .................... .. .... ... ... .... .. ............ ..... ... ..... ...... ....... .... .. .... 30 4.4.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi ... ...... ...... ................ ....... ..... ....... ......... .... .... .......... ....... ... .... ..... .. ....... 32 4.5 Western Balkan Route ................................ ................................................................... 33 4.5.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities ...... ...... ...... .... .... .......... ..... ... ... ........ .... .... ...... ........... ..... .... ..... ........... 33 4.5 .2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi .... .. ... ...... ................ ........ ... ............... ... ........ .......... ..... ....... ... .. .......... 36 4.6 Eastern European Route ............................................................................................... 37 4.6.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities ... ............. ... .... ........ ......... ...... ... ......... .... ....... ............... ... ......... .... ... .. 37 4.6.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi .... ........... ....... ....... ............... ....... ..... ..... .......... .... ... ...... ... .. ....... .... ... .. 38 4 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
4.7 Air Routes ...................................................................................................................... 39 4.7.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities .. .... .... .............. .... ...... .... .......... .. ...... ................ .. .. ............................. 39 4.7.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi ........... .... ............ ...... ............... .... .......... .. ... .... ................ .. ....... ...... ... 42 5 PUSH AND PULL FACTORS FOR ILLEGAL MIGRATION TO THE EU .............45 5.1 Push Factors .................................................................................................................. 45 5.1 .1 Africa .... ................ .... .... ......... .. .. .......... .......... ................. .. ................... ... .. .... .. .... .. .... ........ .... .. .. .... ..... 45 5.1.2 Middle-East ...... .. .... .. .... .......... ....... ........ ........ .... .... ............ ... ..... .... ... .. .... .. .. ....... ... .... ......... ..... .... ..... .. 49 5.1.3 Asia ........... .............. .... .......... ... ....... .... ........ ......... ......... ........ ... .... .... ... .... ....... ........... .. ... .. ... .... ..... .... . 50 5.1.4 Western Balkans ............ ................. .. .............. .. .... .... .............. .. .... ........ .. .......... ......................... ....... 52 5.1.5 Russia and the Community of Independent States {CIS) ............ .. ...... .................. .......... ............ .. ... 53 5.1.6 South America ........ .................. .... ............................. .... ........ ............ .......... ......... ... ........ .. .. ........ ...... 54 5.2 Pull Factors .................................................................................................................... 55 6 FACTORS INFLUENCING ROUTES AND MODI OPERANDI .............................57 6.1 Visa Regulations ..................................... .. .. ............. ...................................................... 57 6.2 Changes in Border Control Policies ............................................................................. 58 6.3 Fac ilitation of Illegal Migrants and OC Involvement.. .................................................. 59 7 CONCLUSION S: OUTLOOK FOR ILLEGAL MIGRATION TO THE EU IN 2009.61 7.1 General Trends .............................................................................................................. 61 7.2 External Land Borders of the Member States of the EU ............................................. 62 7.3 External Maritime Borders of the Member States of the EU ....................................... 63 7.4 External Air Borders of the Member States of the EU ................................................. 64 8 RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................................................66 8.1 General Recommendations ........................................................................................... 66 8.2 Land Borders ................................................................................................................. 66 8.3 Sea Borders ....................................................................... ,........................................... 67 8.4 Air Borders ..................................................................................................................... 67 8.5 Cooperation with Third Countries ................................................................................ 68 8.6 Enhancing Institutional Cooperation, Information Exchange and Analysis of Illegal Migration ................................................................................................................................. 68 5 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
1 Introduction The Annual Risk Assessment (ARA) is intended as the basis for the planning of operational activities at the external borders of the European Union (EU). The report is limited to the current scope of Frontex operational activities, that is, illegal migration at the external borders of the EU and the Schengen Associated Countries, although, according to the concept of integrated border management, border management should cover all security threats present at the external borders. The name of report has been changed from the previous versions to reflect the evolution of the ARA into a more future-oriented intelligence product. The ARA 2008 forms the basis for the Frontex Programme of Work 2009. The ARA 2008 consists of three parts. The first part of the report (Chapters Three and Four) describes the situation regarding illegal migration at the external borders of the Member States of the EU in 2007. It provides firstly an EU overview primarily from the basis of national statistics provided by Member States within the Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN) on illegal border crossings, refused entries , detected false or falsified documents, detected facilitators, asylum claims and illegal stay. Secondly, patterns and emerging trends regarding the main nexus points, nationalities, facilitation and modi operandi are described with respect to the main migration routes to the EU which include: 1. Western African route; 2. Central Mediterranean route; 3. Eastern Mediterranean route; 4. Eastern Balkan route; 5. Western Balkan route; 6. Eastern European route and 7. Air routes . The second part of the report (Chapters Five and Six) outlines the situation and the outlook for the key push and pull factors driving illegal migration to the EU as well as the factors influencing the routes and modi operandi such as changes in visa regulations and border control policies in Member States and in Third Countries, especially in the neighbouring ones, as well as facilitation, including the involvement of organised crime groups (OCGs). In the third part of the ARA 2008 (Chapters Seven and Eight), the outlook for the situation regarding illegal migration to the EU in 2009 and related recommendations are developed and elaborated for each type of border. As the ARA 2008 aims to look into future , the Outlook for 2009 should be understood as the conclusions of the report.
Justification 4 2 Methodology The ARA 2008 focuses mainly on illegal migration as observed at the external borders of the MP.mhP.r StatP.s of thP. EU as Third Country nationals attempting to cross the external borders illegally, that is, detected as illegal migrants or refused entry. The pressure encountered by Member States' Border Guard authorities at the external borders also includes the detection of false or falsified documents as well as the detections of suspected facilitators. In addition, Third Country nationals who abuse the right for asylum to enter the EU as well as those who enter with a valid visa but overstay it, are sometimes detected by Member States Border Guards inland or on exit as illegal migrants. 2.1 Data Collection The backbone of the ARA 2008 are the Member States' statistics provided within the framework of the FRAN on monthly basis. This routine data collection was launched in September 2007 covering the entire yearly period 2007. Member States Boarder Guard authorities provide FRAN monthly data on: • Illegal border crossings at the Border Crossing Points (BCPs) and outside BCPs; • Refusals of entry; • False or falsified travel documents; • Detected facilitators; • Illegal stay; • Asylum claims. Member States report the collected data by type of border. The land border is further broken down by border section. So far, Member States have not been requested to break down data for air and sea borders, but Frontex intends to do so in 2008. After Member States' monthly reports were compiled by Frontex into national annual statistics in the beginning of February 2008, they were sent back to Member States for the final verification and confirmation. Most Member States provided statistical data in all required categories. Although the FRAN definitions are similar to those used by the CIREFI Working Party data collection, the level of detail is higher and some Member States were not always able to comply with the requirements. Nevertheless, Member States' commitment and willingness to comply with the requirements of the data collection, efforts made at national level as well as constructive feedback will surely enable Frontex to improve the FRAN data collection in 2008. The national statistics for 2006 as reported to the European Borders Found (EBF) in the beginning of 2007 were used as the reference point when establishing trends with regard to detections at the external borders. 7 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
With regard to the nationalities of detected illegal migrants or facilitators, Member States were requested to report only 'top-10' nationalities. Therefore, the numbers of nationalities in the ARA 2008 do not provide the complete national and EU picture, but an advanced estimate. Nationalities in the top-10 vary, not just from Member State to Member State, but also in the same country due to, for instance, seasonal changes . Member States' bi-monthly analytical reports and incident reports on detections and irregularities at the external borders within the FRAN and Member States' data collected for the Tailored Risk Analysis drawn up in the second half of 2007 as well as incident reports issued by some Member States formed an important source of information especially when analysing routes and modi operandi. In this respect, also the evaluation reports of the Joint Operations (JOs) coordinated by Frontex in 2007 provided a lot of valuable information. Open sources information, that is, reports issued by governmental agencies, non-governmental organisations and various 'watchdogs' as well as official EU reporting such as the Commission's strategic reports regarding Third Countries, and main stream news agencies were exploited especially when outlining the main push and pull factors for illegal migration to the EU. 2.2 'Look into the Future' Although the Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM) does not include a methodology for assessing future developments, it was considered important that the ARA 2008 attempts to 'look into the future' and develop an outlook for 2009 regarding illegal migration at the external borders of the Member States of the EU. In general, unanticipated increases of migration flows could cause even large-scale political and economic upheaval, especially in the frontline Member States, by straining public services, undermining national security, increasing the supply of illegal workers and fuelling social tensions. In the ARA 2008, the outlook for 2009 was based on the analysis of the state of play regarding illegal migration at the external borders of the EU, push and pull factors as well as factors impacting routes and modi operandi. Push and pull factors refer to motivational reasons for which illegal migrants leave their home country and choose their destination country in the EU. The analysis of push factors focused on the most relevant countries and factors only, that is, economical, social and political factors in the main source countries for illegal migration to Europe. The analysis of pull factors was limited to main economical, social and legal factors. Once migrants decide to 'enter the illegal migration stream', they will test various receiving states' defences, even repeatedly. They do so regardless of whether they must risk their own lives, pay exorbitant fees, or subvert the asylum system or any other available means of entry. Factors influencing routes and modi operandi include geography (which, however, cannot be changed and will not be discussed in this report), existing visa regime, border control policies including readmission agreements, and 'services' provided by OCGs in the EU and the main transit countries, especially in the neighbouring ones. The analysis of the above mentioned factors serves in the ARA 2008 as an environmental scan identifying possible threats and opportunities in the external environment. To a limited extent it also identifies strengths and weaknesses of the EU with regard to illegal migration pressure. The 1 approach adopted in the ARA 2008 is thus a modified version of the SWOT analysis used widely as a strategic planning tool. 1 Analysis of one's own strengths (S) and weaknesses (W) together with the opportunities (0) and threats T in the external environment. 8 of7 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Due to the extreme complexity of the topic - illegal migration is a global phenomenon - only the key issues could be analysed within the framework of the ARA 2008. It is acknowledged that when scanning the external environment, it is recommended to cover the whole scope of political, economical, social, technological, environmental and legal aspects (PESTEL analysis), but due to the time constraint and lack of resources, it was possible to concentrate on key factors only. Furthermore, as the ARA 2008 only adopts a short-term perspective, a tull 1-'l:::.::i 11:::.L analysis was not considered meaningful for this purpose. Recommendations were developed on the basis of the assumption that vulnerabilities are caused firstly due to an intelligence gap or lack of awareness which can be remedied by intelligence gathering, better information flow/exchange and training. Vulnerabilities may also result from the lack of resources either technical assets or human resources. This can be overcome by building technical capacities or by launching joint operations (JOs) . 9 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 3 Situation at the External EU Borders in 2007 3.1 Illegal Border Crossings In 2006, all Member States and Schengen Associated Countries reported a red uction in detections of illegal migrants at their external borders. In 2007, the general picture is not as clear; FIGURE 1: Illegal Border Crossings in 2007 by Member State and Type of Border. -- -- -- em er State Total Land Air -• Change -- -- --• -- --• -- -- •• -- • -- -- - -- -- --• -•• I - -•• -- -• -- -- -- -- - - -• • - 2 The figure of the land border provided by Cyprus is for detections whi le and after crossing the cease-fire reen line. 10 of 70 An nual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
