2008 Annual Risk Analysis Report - Part 1
Justification 4 FIGURE 11: Illegal Stay in 2007 by Member State and Place of Detection. Member State --Total --Inland -- Exit -- -- - -- -- -- - -- -- - -- -- -- - -- - I -- -- - -Total - 263,009 - 193,211 - 15,907 Nationals of Morocco and Iraq were the most detected nationals staying illegally in the EU, followed by nationals of Brazil, Ukraine and Algeria (figure 12). A high number of Ukrainian, Turkish and Russian nationals were detected on exit from the EU. It should be noted that as some Member States did not report the place of detection but the total figures only, the figures for detections inland and at exit are incomplete. 21 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 FIGURE 12: Illegal Stay in 2007 by Nationality and Place of Detection. Nationality Total Inland Exit Morocco 27,197 16,856 42 Iraq 24,389 21 ,842 210 Brazil 16,966 13,479 366 Ukraine 10,839 7,950 2,813 Algeria 10,615 8,558 83 China 8,961 6,648 880 Albania 8,782 8,771 11 India 7,656 5,376 101 Turkey 7,001 4,358 2,643 Bolivia 6,819 553 1 Senegal 6,361 3,694 2 Serbia 5,929 4,805 1,124 Tunisia 5,415 5,397 18 Moldova, Republic of 4,888 4,524 364 Nigeria 4,322 2,801 22 Somalia 4,189 3,332 6 Afghanistan 4,002 1,706 2 Russia 4,001 2,185 1,816 Pakistan 3,732 1,899 7 Egypt 3,727 3,668 59 Other 87,218 64,809 5,337 Total 263,009 193,211 15,907 Most detected illegal aliens came from 1) the neighbouring countries such as Ukraine, Albania, Serbia, Turkey and Moldova, 2) North Africa, 3) long-term conflict areas such Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan, or 4) from the most populous countries in the world (Brazil , China, India and Nigeria). The only exception to these categories was Bolivian nationals, who were mainly detected in Spain . 3.6 Asylum Claims Member States reporter! almost 150,000 asylum claims in 2007 (figure 13). 22 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justifi cation 4 RESTRICTED FIGURE 13: Asylum Seekers in 2007 by Member State. -- Not established Member State Total Land Air Sea Ii (inland) --• -- - -- -• - • -• -- --• -- -• --• --• •• -• --•• • • - - --• • - -- - -- -• • -- - - -Total - 144,734 15,625 - - 12,684 156 57,134 23 of 70 Annu al Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 4 Main Routes to the EU 4.1 Western African Route 4.1.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities Western African route is a combination of land and sea routes including several by-passing itineraries. The route usually departs from the continental Africa, but sometimes even from Asia. Illegal migrants of African origin mainly come from Central Western Africa. - FIGURE 14: Illegal Border Crossings on the Western African Route in 2007 by Nationality. Third country Morocco 2,684 Algeria 1,500 Senegal 1,284 Gambia 971 Guinea 817 Mali 709 Cote d'lvore 576 Ghana 295 Guinea-Bissau 247 Burkina Faso 92 Other 2,576 Total 11,751 4 TRA on Asian Mi ration throu h Africa, Frontex, Februar 2008. 24 of 7 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 4.1.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi 6 Illegal migrants of African origin pay from EUR 304 to EUR 1,219 for the crossing to the Canaries on a Cayuco. As there are more job opportunities and more knowledge on risks related to illegal migration to Europe in the coastal areas, facilitators mainly target would-be migrants in rural areas. Local religious authorities are allegedly involved in human smuggling; • Chinese, Indian and Pakistani criminal groups facilitating human smuggling to Europe through Africa offer package deals with a money-back-guarantee for an average price of EUR 17,000. 7 Illegal migrants departing from Senegal and Mauritania are provided with accommodation in Dakar, Zinguichor, in the province of Casamance, Saint-Louis du Senegal and Nouadhibou. Migrants coming from Central Africa usually stop in the border area between Mali and the Republic of Guinea before reaching the capital, Conakry. Migrants are taken care by criminal groups from Guinea-Bissau, are hidden in safe-houses in Sao Domingos, Bugueguette, Varela and the Bijagos Islands. 4.2 Central Mediterranean Route 4.2.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities The Central Mediterranean route funnels migrants from Central-Northern Africa and even from the Horn of Africa to Europe. It follows one of the oldest routes in the world - the Nile Valley. As the route also attracts migrants from the Maghreb countries, another branch of the route crosses the Libyan Desert from Niger. Migrants board on fishing boats or specifically designed boats departing from the North African coast to the European islands in the Central Mediterranean Sea . 5 'Frontex English.xls' provided by Spanish NFPOC, 28 January 2008. 6 Original prices are in CFA Francs {from CFA 200,000 to CFA 800,000). 7 25 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 The origin of the land route is in the Central-Northern African region; Sudan and its secessionist province of Darfur, Chad where refugees from Darfur are looking for a safe- haven and Niger, which is a major transit country for migrants. From Niger migrants reach the nexus point of Chirfa to Tamanrasset or Djanet in Algeria. From there they cross the Sahara northwards to Ghat in Libya before heading to the final land destination of Sabah, Ghadamis and Tripoli. Another flow takes a land route passing through Khartoum from where facilitators smuggle illegal migrants to Libya through AI-Awayanal up to the AI-Koufrah oasis. The last main route departs from Gao in Mali to Adrar in Algeria from where illegal migrants are transported by cars along Tanezrouft to Gharda'ia, then Ghadames and finally to Tripoli. The ports of departure to cross the Mediterranean Sea are in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia: In Libya migrants depart from Zuwara, Zliten, Misratah and Tripoli on the Tripolitan Coast and the Benghazi region on the Cyrenaica. An emerging trend of mainly young Algerian nationals boarding more or less seaworthy fishing boats to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Europe was reported by the affected Member States during the summer. The sudden flow resulted most likely from the strengthened border control measures on the West African route. The points of departure for Algerian illegal migrants were widespread along the Algerian coast until the Tunisian border. 26 of 701iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 FIGURE 15: Illegal Border Crossings on the Central Mediterranean Route in 2007 by Nationality. Third country Total II -- --• -- ••• Egypt 5,144 Eritrea 3,221 Morocco Algeria 2,354 1,773 • --- -• Tunisia 1,442 Iraq 1,215 Somalia 1,108 -- -- Nigeria 1,056 Ghana 776 Cote d ·Ivore 460 Other 4,762 Total 23,311 4.2.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi Facilitation usually starts in the source countries. OCGs flourish in the Horn of Africa, especially in Somalia even to the extent that Puntland has become a nexus of all kind of criminal activities. OCGs are affiliated to 'warlords' who have ruled Somalia since the early 1990's. Migrants are smuggled firstly through the Gulf of Aden to Yemen which closed its borders in January 2007. The price for a trip to Europe is USD 500 to USD 1,200. Depending on the amount paid, migrants either cross the Libyan border in trucks or pick-ups or on foot in the region of Ghadames guided by smugglers. On many occasions, interviewed illegal migrants referred to law enforcement officers involved in the smuggling, especially in Libya. In addition, Libya is traditionally a stronghold for OCGs. Reportedly, OCGs recruit migrants actively in Tunisia, for instance in Sfax. There are several stop-overs along the Central African route. The main transit and lodging area is AI-Koufrah oasis, located at the exit of the corridors of al-Awaynat, close to the Sudanese border, and of Abd-el-Malek mountains close to the Egyptian border. The oasis seems to be a hub for criminal activities; migrants are lodged there as long as needed to negotiate a better price that can reach USD 2,000 to USD 2,500. Another stop-over in the departing port is needed to keep groups of migrants ready for the crossing at short notice. Facilitators shelter migrants in groups of 30-200 people for two to fifteen days (sometimes even longer) in safe-houses usually close to the beach. Embarkation varies depending on the point of departure and its remoteness from the closest entry point to Europe. 11 Final Evaluation Report JO NAUTILUS 2007, Frontex/RAU, October 2007. 27 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
Justification 4 Illegal migrants of African origin usually cross the continent with their genuine IDs or passports before destroying them during the sea journey. On arrival they claim either that they lost them or that facilitators seized their documents. 4.3 Eastern Mediterranean Route 4.3.1 Nexus Points and Nationalities Eastern Mediterranean route originates in the Middle-East and Central Asia transiting through Turkey, where it is divided into Eastern Mediterranean (sea) route and Eastern Balkan (land) route. Most Afghani illegal migrants interviewed during the JO POSEIDON 2007, departed from Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan to Arat from where they continued to Masshad in Iran. They crossed Iran (Teheran, Tabriz) in eight days to two months and entered Turkey in the border region of Oromya and Van. After this they travelled 20-30 days to Istanbul. Migrants escaping from conflict and war zones were the most numerous among illegal migrants taking the Eastern Mediterranean route. They originated from Afghanistan, Somalia, Palestine, and Iraq (figure 16). 12 'HERMES Background Paper', JO HERMES, March 2008. 1 28 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
._ u_st_ifi_1c_a_tio_n_ 4____~ !J_ FIGURE 16: Illegal Border Crossings on the Eastern Mediterranean Route in 2007 by Nationality. Third country Greece Afghanistan 4,562 Somalia 1,411 Palestinian Territory Occupied 1,226 Iraq 890 Egypt 311 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 159 India 110 Pakistan 108 Eritrea 93 Turkey 73 Cote d 'lvore 399 Total 9,342 According to Cyprus, mainly nationals of Syria (2,021), Palestine (1,074), Iran, Iraq and even Georgia firstly landed in the part of the island not effectively under the control of the Cypriot government from Turkey or Syria, after which they were detected while crossing the cease-fire green line . The economic migrants taking the Eastern Mediterranean route came mainly from Egypt, Libya and India. 4.3.2 Facilitation and Modi Operandi Some Turkish OCGs facilitate illegal migration across the border to the EU, while in other cases migrants are assisted until reaching final destination in the EU. Migrants transiting Turkey are usually taken in charge by different local smugglers. Migrants interviewed during the JO POSE IDON 2007 reported how, after having been smuggled from the border village of Van, they were led to Istanbul, where they were dispatched in lodges, safe-house or small hotels for which they had to pay and where they were kept under custody. Allegedly, the number of involved facilitators is high; they keep eye on their 'human merchandise' and protect themselves by for instance, changing frequently their SIM cards and using pseudonyms. Usually collective departures by small inflatable boats are organised to overwhelm the surveillance display. Facilitators provided migrants with life-jackets and briefed them on how 14 to operate the boat and to claim to be an Afghan, Iraqi or Palestinian nationals . Illegal migrants taking the sub-route from Turkey and Syria to Cyprus usually try to board fishing boats or even regular ferries to the part of the island not controlled by the Cypriot government, in 13 14 Athens News Ailly, Final Assessment of JO POSEIDON 2007, Frontex/RAU-S1, 15 October 2007. 7 October 2007. 29 of 70 Annual Risk Assessment 2008, March 2008
