3717111020-horizon-scanning-eng
Dieses Dokument ist Teil der Anfrage „Berichte im Rahmen der Ressortforschungspläne“
3 Outlook
▸ Resilience as a basis for sustainable societies and European levels work more closely together
(see Chapter 2.5) is a complex and multi- and use synergies between different measures,
layered topic with different connections to that crises can be used to achieve environmental
environmental and sustainability policy. policy goals. With a view to future potential
However, a consistent understanding of the crises, an explorative scenario development could
term is necessary to differentiate resilience produce different images of the future that can
from similar approaches and to resolve conflicts shed light on how a crisis-proof European Union
of objectives. Nonetheless, the concept of could react to different types of crises.
resilience is becoming an increasingly important
component of environmental governance due to ▸ The emerging new world (dis)order (see chapter
its central importance in Germany’s Sustainable 2.8) puts established international organisations
Development Strategy. under pressure and should be taken as an
opportunity to strengthen them or to establish
▸ In the area of mobile work, mobile workers new organisations that can develop and also
and mobile organisations (see chapter 2.6), implement agile solutions in the fight against
the developments of the Covid-19 pandemic the climate crisis. However, the new world
have also provided a considerable impetus for disorder can also lead to serious disruptions in
change. At present, it is not yet foreseeable to the international order. From an environmental
what extent these developments will have a policy perspective, support should be given to
constant character. However, certain options for those people and organisations that are gaining
environmental policy, such as the promotion of importance in the fight against the climate crisis
efficiency and climate protection measures in data in the face of these changes. However, many of
centres and VR, MR and AR technology, or the the political resources are currently tied up in
creation of incentives to avoid business trips and other policy areas, such as domestic, foreign and
commuting, can be reconsidered or initiated under security policy. The UBA and BMUV could further
the assumption of a further increase in mobile consider this topic in the form of explorative
work. On the topic of location changes due to scenarios, in which different future development
mobile work (see chapter 2.6), questions have also paths are drafted and analysed with regard to the
remained unanswered, for example the question various strategic options for action.
of what kind of living space will be provided and
where in order to meet the changing requirements ▸ With regard to the topic of shaping opinions of
due to new forms of working, or also what social the future (see chapter 2.9), it has become clear
changes – beyond environmental effects – will that the change in the media landscape and the
be caused by a permanently high proportion of resulting dynamics, especially those influenced by
mobile work. In addition, the question of the algorithms, can lead to changes in the formation
concrete effects of mobile work on the activities of opinion. Social attention is then diverted from
in the UBA and BMUV is likely to be of direct important environmental policy issues such
relevance to the UBA and BMUV. However, this as dealing with the climate crisis. Amplified
could not be analysed within the framework of by multipliers and disinformation, the social
this report and should therefore be the subject of a consensus for measures to combat climate change
future research or consultancy project. can be negatively influenced. This can reduce the
scope for environmental policy action. Further
▸ The European Union’s resilience to crises (see analyses can provide additional insights here,
chapter 2.7) is likely to continue to be tested in for example by conducting an in-depth analysis
the future, not only to manage ongoing crises, of the opinion-forming mechanisms and their
but also in identifying and managing emerging stakeholders.
crises. Appropriate tools such as strategic foresight
or resilience dashboards are currently being ▸ The topic of the future of city centres (see Chapter
implemented. While managing crises can reduce 2.10) is essentially not a new topic for the UBA
the room for manoeuvre in terms of environmental and BMUV, but it has taken on a new quality due
policy, there is also an opportunity, if national to the developments of the Covid-19 pandemic.
92
3 Outlook
Both pressure to act and windows of opportunity
for change have arisen. In addition to the already
recognisable potential for shaping environmental
policy, however, the topic still has unanswered
questions. The UBA project FKZ 3721 11 103 0
(“The Future of Inner Cities – Rethinking
Sustainable City Centres with Foresight Methods”),
which will start in 2022, addresses this and
attempts to formulate answers together with
selected municipalities. In the form of scenarios,
possible future developments of inner cities will
be presented and potential for sustainability
looked into.
With the completed horizon scanning process, a
compact overview of emerging and environmentally
relevant topics is available for the UBA and BMUV.
Following this process, it should be a matter of
evaluating the available results and translating
them into strategic, environmental policy action.
On the one hand, this can be done by exchanging
views on the individual topics in the form of dialogue
formats: workshops, expert discussions or conference
contributions. On the other hand, or in addition to the
exchange, in-depth analyses may also be necessary
to provide additional insights. Whether and how the
topics presented here are further developed should
be decided on a case-by-case basis. As a result,
individual topics may not be pursued further or
should be dealt with elsewhere. It is also conceivable
that they will be considered again in future horizon
scanning processes initiated by the UBA and BMUV,
for example if topics or certain aspects reveal new,
environmentally relevant qualities.
93
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