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remained in the hundreds of thousands a month after the disaster, with the World Bank estimating direct
physical damages worth around 34.2 billion dollars, equivalent to 4 % of Turkey s 2021 GDP.?® The bank
has warned that the costs of recovery and reconstruction will be much higher, and economic
disruptions caused by the earthquake will lead to GDP losses.**In addition to the earthquake s impact,
mob violence and violence against civilian events increased compared to the monthly average of the
previous year, with five clashes recorded between Gendarmerie forces and escaped prisoners in
southern provinces.?®

In Syria, also affected by the earthquake and an important country of origin for third country nationals in
Türkiye, the situation remained critical in the vicinity of the Syrian-Turkish border: aid organisations
warned of an impending public health crisis due to overcrowded temporary shelters and damaged critical
infrastructure.” Although the earthquake initially prompted an aid surge, relief organisations fear thatthe
world’s attention will quickly shift away from the critical humanitarian needs left unaddressed.” Turkish-
backed rebel groups in northwest Syria prevented at least 30 aid trucks sent by rival Kurdish groups from
reaching Turkish-controlled Afrin during the same period.” The UNHCR has reported that the
destruction caused by the earthquake reached apocalyptic levels, with immediate response needed to
relieve the affected population also affected by a massive flood in March.°®

Tunisia

 
 
  
 

Among the selected countries of ®Conflict ® Political eSocial
origin, Tunisia exhibited the 150 “Economy ®Governance
highest PFI instability (see Figures

1,2 and 8). The country

 

 

Jun -2022 Aug Nov

Figure 8: Push factors in Tunisic En 2022 - mor

2023. Dashed line separates the focal period from the reference period. Yellow dots
indicate PFl above 95" percentile threshold. Blue dots indicate asylum applications
above 95" percentile threshold. (Source: EUAA EPS, GDELT).

  
 
 
 
 
 

EEE X: the same time, the PFI highlighted six weeks above the early warning threshold during the
focal period and was largely dominated by political events (Fig. 8). Since July 2021, Tunisia has
experienced political turmoil, with President Kais Saied seizing most powers and ruling by decree after
shutting down the Parliament.“ According to ACLED, the country has seen 13 recorded riots during the
focal period.” On 16 February 2023, journalists and civil society activists protested against restrictions
on freedom of expression*, and on 29 January 2023, Tunisia’s electoral authority reported a turnout of
only 11% in the second round of parliamentary elections.*” On 9 January 2023, Tunisia rescued 305 Italy-
bound migrants from sinking boats“*, but irregular immigration attempts from Tunisia to Italy have been
on the rise, with at least 29 migrants dying in two separate boat sinkings off the Tunisian coast.*
According to the Italian Ministry of interior, Tunisia was the main departure country of irregular migrants
detected along the Central Mediterranean route with some 15 470 arrivals insofar 2023.*%

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has warned of a potential wave of migrants arriving in Europe from
North Africa if financial stability in Tunisia is not secured.” Talks of a bailout with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) have been stalled due to demands for far-reaching reforms from President Kais
Saied.*® Additionally, 14 sub-Saharan African migrants drowned in the Mediterranean off Tunisia s coast*®,
amid a wave of violence against black migrants that followed an inflammatory speech by President Saied.
In addition to the political and economic situation in the country, the deteriorating local attitudes toward
Sub-Saharan migrants may prompt more third country nationals to depart from Tunisia towards the EU.°®

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Endnotes
1
  In order to control for short-lived peaks of instability and a certain lack of comparability between
countries, the weekly PFI is preferred over the daily PFI.
2
  ACLED, Regional Hub: Latin America & the Caribbean, 3 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
3
  Colombia Reports, Petro orders Colombia’s security forces to end ceasefire with AGC 20 March 2023.
4
  UNHCR, Colombia situation, Accessed 23 March 2023.
5
  TRTWORLD, Deadly clashes erupt between ELN rebels, ex-FARC fighters in Colombia, 13 January 2023,
accessed 30 March 2023.
6
  UNHCR, Colombia situation, Accessed 23 March 2023.
7
  ACLED, Regional Hub: Latin America & the Caribbean, 3 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
8
  Bloomberg, Venezuelan Street Protests Return as Inflation Erodes Wages, 16 January 2023, accessed 30
March 2023.
9
  Big News Network, Venezuela calls for end of sanctions at Ibero-American Summit, 25 March 2023, accessed
30 March 2023.
10
   Stabroek News, Ministry convenes meeting on Venezuelan migrants, 12 March 2023, accessed 30 March
2023.
11
   Venezuelananalysis.com,Venezuela: National Assembly Moves to Regulate NGO Activities, 24 January 2023,
accessed 30 March 2023.
12
   UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Venezuela: Humanitarian Response Plan 2022 –
2023, August 2022.
13
   the White House, Fact Sheet: Biden-Harris administration announces new border enforcement actions, 5
January 2023 .
14
   ACLED, Africa Regional Overviews Archive, accessed 30 March 2023.
15
   State Information Service, President’s activities during January 2023, 5 February 2023, accessed 30 March
2023.
16
   Egyptian Streets, Egypt’s Strategic Commodities Will Last 4-6 Months: Ministry of Supply, 19 December 2022,
30 March 2023.
17
   Al Jazeera, What is next for Egypt-Turkey rapprochement?, 28 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
18
   Eye Radio, Ethiopia dismisses Egypt’s fresh warning on Blue Nile dam, 19 March 2023, accessed 30 March
2023.
19
   Zawya, Ethiopia dismisses Egypt's fresh warning on Blue Nile dam, 19 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
20
   Al Jazeera, Four killed in attack on police checkpoint in Egypt’s Ismailia, 31 December 2022, accessed 30
March 2023.
21
   Ibid.
22
   MENAFN, Egypt Lawyers End Strike After Colleagues Released, 22 January 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
23
   Ibid.
24
   ConstitutionNet, The political crisis in Peru: is there a constitutional solution?, 27 February 2023, accessed 30
March 2023.
25
   Reuters, Peru's Castillo faces criminal charges as new president Boluarte takes helm, 9 December 2022,
accessed 30 March 2023.
26
   The Real News Network, Peruvian Security forces massacre 17 protesters in Juliaca, Puno, 13 January 2023,
accessed 30 March 2023.
27
   The Guardian, Peru protesters fight running battles with police after thousands march in Lima, 20 January
2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
28
   Reuters, Thousands march on Peru's capital as unrest spreads, building set ablaze, 21 January 2023, accessed
30 March 2023.
29
   France 24, Nearly 50 injured in Peru’s latest anti-government march, 10 February 2023, accessed 30 March
2023.
30
   Reliefweb, Syria/ Turkey Earthquakes Situation Report, 8 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
31
   UNHCR, Visiting earthquake-ravaged areas of Türkiye and Syria, UNHCR’s Grandi urges more support for
survivors trying to rebuild, 13 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
32
   ACLED, Middle East Regional Overview February 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.

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33
   The World Bank, Earthquake Damage in Türkiye Estimated to Exceed $34 billion: World Bank Disaster
Assessment Report, 27 February 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
34
   Ibid.
35
   ACLED, Middle East Regional Overview February 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
36
   UNHCR, Visiting earthquake-ravaged areas of Türkiye and Syria, UNHCR’s Grandi urges more support for
survivors trying to rebuild, 13 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
37
   PBS News Hour, Humanitarian crisis persists for survivors in Turkey, Syria after devastating earthquake, 6
March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
38
   Ibid.
39
   UNHCR, Visiting earthquake-ravaged areas of Türkiye and Syria, UNHCR’s Grandi urges more support for
survivors trying to rebuild, 13 March 2023, accessed 30 March 2023
40
   The Guardian, Tunisia’s president to ignore parts of the constitution and rule by decree, 22 September 2021,
accessed 30 March 2023
41
   ACLED, Africa Regional Overviews Archive, accessed 30 March 2023.
42
   CIVICUS, Crackdown on critics and journalists as President Saied cements his power grab, accessed 30 March
2023.
43
   Reuters, Tunisians elect weakened parliament on 11% turnout, 30 January 2023, accessed 30 March 2023.
44
   National Herald, Tunisia rescues 305 Italy-bound migrants from sinking boats, 9 January 2023, accessed 30
March 2023.
45
   Associated Press News, 29 dead, 11 rescued off Tunisia in migrant boat sinkings, 26 March 2023, accessed 30
March 2023.
46
   Integrated Situation Awareness and Analysis Situation Report No 342 [LIMITED], 29 March 2023, accessed 31
March 2023
47
   Reuters, Europe risks migrant surge without aid to Tunisia, Italy PM warns, 24 March 2023, accessed 30
March 2023.
48
   Reuters, Analysis: Fate of Tunisia's stalled IMF loan lies in hands of unwilling president, 9 March 2023,
accessed 30 March 2023.
49
   The Guardian, Refugees trying to reach Italy die after boats sink off coast of Tunisia, 26 March 2023.
50
   Deutsche Welle, Migrants flee Tunisia after president's 'racist hate speech', 10 March 2023, accessed 30
March 2023.

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Introduction

BES 1 16) 1 jo Vo 1-7
tr and PF (Push Factor ndex) weeks above
thresho d (PF 95p) between the foca per od (26 December 2022 — 26 March 2023), compared to reference per od (27 June
— 25 December 2022).

—————
Mn ss ZZ
|]

Methodological note

The EUAA uses GDELT data (nk) on goba med a reports, wh ch are se ected based on ther re evance to asy um re ated
mograton (nk). n the nterests of smp fcaton and to enabe further ana yses, the 240 types of events have been
aggregated nto acompos te nd cator for each country of the wor d, referred to as the Push Factor ndex (PF).

Accord ng to str ct statstca prncp es, GDELT data and therefore a so the PF , are not norma sed or prec se y comparab e
between d fferent countr es of org.n. Therefore, we emp oy a new ndex, ca ed PF 95p (see defnton n the append x),
whcch quant fes reduced stab ty as the number of weeks nthe foca per od when PF va ues exceeded the 95!" percent e
generated dur ng the reference per od.

For more nformat on contact: dars.reseärch-programme@euaa.europa.eu

EUAA Ear y Warn ng Report, ssue 1 2023, EUAW/AKC/SAU/DARS/2023/159

Ths Eary Warnng Report s marked as LM TED, whch refers to non-c ass fed senstve nformaton. Ths document s
produced by EUAA S tuat ona Awareness Un t (SAU) on the bas s of Push Factor ndex (EUAA and GDELT) and week y data
exchanged under the Ear y warn ng and Preparedness System (EPS).

The data prov ded to EUAA by the EU+ countr es are provsona and unva dated, and therefore may d ffer from va dated
data subm tted to Eurostat (accord ng to Regu at on (EC) No 862/2007). Th s report shou d therefore be understoodasgvng
an est mat on of genera trends at EU+ nas neartorea tme as possbe.

Ths document s based on EUAA EPS week y data unt the 26 March 2023 (at the date of re ease ava abe for 29 EU+
countr es).

L st ofterms and abbrev at ons:

Er Ear y warn ng and Preparedness System
EU+ European Un on Member States p us Norway and Sw tzer and
PF Push Factor ndex

GDELT Goba Database of Events, Language and Tone