3717111020-horizon-scanning-eng
Dieses Dokument ist Teil der Anfrage „Berichte im Rahmen der Ressortforschungspläne“
1 Introduction: Disruptions on the horizon
2
Future topics
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2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
The future topics presented below are the results of The description of the future issues follows a uniform
the second cycle of horizon scanning in the UBA and pattern:
BMUV, which was carried out in 2020 and 2021. A
comparable process, carried out in the same period Trend: Each topic is reduced to its core statement
on behalf of another institution, would certainly have about a possible direction of development.
led to different results. That is why the topics listed
here are to be understood as a selection that in no
way claims to be complete or superior with regard to In a nutshell:
other compilations. Rather, they are future topics and
emerging issues that were considered relevant for the ▸ Relevant background information
work of the UBA and BMUV by those involved in the outlines the topic in rather general
process. terms, provides examples and points out
its potential and challenges.
The topics presented are deliberately brief in order to
do justice to the diversity of topics. In-depth analyses ▸ Emerging issues represent important
of selected topics may be the subject of future developments within the respective
research projects (see above). trend themes and are highlighted in
particular.
Figure 04
Structure of the description of future topics
What is the trend?
What developments are
Title of the trend Emerging Issues shaping the trend?
Trend statement Development 1
What are the most Environmental aspects Which environmentally
important statements? In a nutshell: relevant aspects can be
▸ Core statement 1 Development 2 described?
▸ Core statement 2
▸ Core statement 3 Environmental aspects
Development 3
What exactly is the What options for action
trend about? Environmental aspects are emerging?
Background
Conclusion for
environmental policy
and research
Source: Own illustration
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2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
▸ Environmental aspects are presented
in conclusion in order to elaborate the
relevance for the UBA and BMUV. An
in-depth analysis of the negative and
positive effects on the environment is
not the subject of this report.
An outlook (see Chapter 3) outlines the first
recommendations for action already identified
for individual topics and presents the extent to
which horizon scanning can contribute to a forward-
looking, design-oriented environmental policy as a
learning process for the UBA and BMUV.
The sources used in the respective chapters are
listed at the end of the report. They substantiate the
statements made and contain further information.
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2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
2.1 Quantum computing as the next generation of computers
Trend: Quantum computers are expected to enable
new forms of problem solving in the future. Quantum context of materials research, increasing
computers are able to perform computing steps in energy and resource efficiency by
parallel (instead of one after the other) and thus controlling complex networks, and
solve complex problems – such as the optimisation optimising processes in industry.
of climate models and climate protection strategies –
that conventional computers are not capable of. ▸ The production and operation of
quantum computers is associated
Emerging Issues: with direct environmental impacts,
▸ (Natural) scientific simulations for example through high energy
▸ Decarbonisation of the energy system requirements as some hardware
▸ Solving optimisation problems in industry platforms need to be cooled
considerably. Indirect environmental
impacts arise in the various fields of
In a nutshell: application through the problem-solving
capabilities of quantum computers,
▸ In principle, quantum computers e.g. in the form of energy and emission
are expected to help solve complex savings (especially of CO2). Quantum
problems in the future, which computers could, for example, develop
conventional computers either cannot solutions for how to better manage
do or only manage to do requiring a vehicle fleets, thereby improving traffic
lot of computing effort and time. The flow or better managing parking needs.
theoretical development of quantum However, improved efficiency may lead
computers is currently being flanked by to rebound effects, which could offset
the construction of the first hardware the environmental benefits of quantum
platforms. computing.
▸ Quantum computers, or rather their
hardware platforms and software
applications, are currently being Background:
developed exclusively to solve specific Quantum computing is currently a much-
problems. Many applications of discussed technology of the future. Although the
quantum computers are currently first applications have already been realised, a
being developed. Applications with comprehensive use of quantum computers, for
environmental relevance include example in industry, has not yet taken place.
(natural) scientific simulation in the Currently, the transition from basic research
to applied research occurs (Federal Office for
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2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
Information Security, p. 17). Since around 2014, it possible to perform complex computing operations
has been possible to use quantum computers via simultaneously (Enzweiler et al. 2018; Federal
cloud-based access (Ausschuss Digitale Agenda Government 2021). Conventional computers can
2018, p. 10). The company IBM, for example, offers be used universally, i.e. different problems can
such cloud-based access for research, development, be solved with one device. This does not apply to
application, education and companies.2 Further quantum computers at present; rather, they are being
developments and simplifications are expected in developed to solve specific problems (Heimisch-
the coming years (Eder 2021). Quantum computers Röcker and Müller-Markus 2020).
do not currently work independently, but are linked
to conventional computers, i.e. they can solve sub- For the development of quantum computers, it is
problems for which conventional computers are not necessary to develop special algorithms (this is
suitable (Heimisch-Röcker and Müller-Markus 2020). the so-called “theoretical level” of development).
Whether and to what extent quantum computers will The application of the special algorithms can be
one day completely replace conventional computers simulated on conventional computers. In addition
and establish themselves as a new standard cannot to the development of special algorithms, suitable
be reliably answered, as many details are still unclear hardware must be developed (the “practical level”
(Dyakonov 2018). of development), i.e. the quantum computer itself
(Wilhelm-Mauch 2018).
Theoretical and technical basics
In contrast to established computers, quantum The idea of quantum computing has existed since
computers have a completely different mode of the early 1980s. However, it only gained attention
operation, so that they can perform computing in 1994 with the development of the so-called Shor
operations simultaneously – instead of only one after algorithm (Dyakonov 2018) and other work that
the other like conventional computers. This is made explored the question of what kind of problems
possible by two properties of qubits3: superposition quantum computers are suitable for. Examples of
and quantum entanglement. Superposition means possible areas of application include searching
that instead of the two states 0 or 1 in conventional unstructured databases or factorising large numbers
bits, both states can be assumed simultaneously by (Enzweiler et al. 2018). Concrete areas of application
qubits. The entanglement of qubits allows two or are outlined later in the text under “Emerging Issues”.
more qubits to be connected to each other, making it
Technically, quantum computers are based on
controlling quantum mechanical systems, e.g.
individual atoms or ions, by completely isolating
them from their environment (Ausschuss Digitale
Agenda 2018, p. 9). At the same time, these quantum
mechanical systems must be controllable by technical
intervention as well as operate error-free (Meschede
2019). To this end, two approaches are being pursued
in hardware development:
1. Atomistic platforms, which use individual atoms,
ions or photons as qubits, and
2. Solid-state platforms based on integrated
circuits (Stollenwerk 2021, p. 11). One technical
challenge is scalability (Stollenwerk 2021,
p. 14 f.). Currently, the most promising solid-state
platforms are superconducting circuits, which
2 https://www.ibm.com/de-de/quantum-computing
3 Quantum bits/qubits are, analogously to bits, the smallest basic unit of calculation in quantum computing.
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2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
must be operated at very low temperatures, and (European Commission 2021b). It was followed in
systems based on semiconductor technology, 2021 by further measures, such as the construction
such as so-called quantum dots (Stollenwerk of a European quantum computer by the year 2023
2021, pp. 15, 16-17). (European Commission 2021a).
At present, it is not yet foreseeable which technical In Germany, too, interest in quantum computers is
platform will one day dominate, so that different high: as early as 2018, the Federal Government took
approaches are also being pursued in Germany (Filip an in-depth look at the topic of quantum computing
and Leibinger 2021). (cf. public hearing on 06.06.2018). A panel of experts
commissioned by the Federal Government formulated
Quantum computing is an international economic and a roadmap showing which future development
research policy priority topic steps should be implemented and when. In the
In international competition, Germany and Europe short term, an internationally competitive quantum
are trying to position themselves vis-à-vis the US and computer with at least 100 qubits should be created
China and to take on a pioneering role. The research by establishing suitable networks of cooperation
programmes are correspondingly ambitious: In the (Filip and Leibinger 2021, p. 6). Such a national
US, around 1.2 billion US dollars have been set aside competence network5 was founded on 15 June 2021,
for multi-year funding of quantum computing in 2020 in which several collaborative projects are conducting
alone (Shankland 2020); in China, funding reaches research on quantum-based computing strategies,
similar dimensions (Chang 2021; Garisto 2021). In among other things (Polian 2021). Since 2018, the
the EU, a multi-billion dollar funding programme4 BMBF has been funding collaborative projects in
was also launched (European Commission 2018), Germany6 on the basis of the programme “Quantum
the first 20 projects of which were funded until 2021 Technologies – From the Basics to the Market”
4 https://qt.eu
5 https://www.iaf.fraunhofer.de/de/netzwerker/KQC.html
6 https://www.quantentechnologien.de/index.html
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2 Future topics of the second horizon scanning cycle
(Federal Ministry of Education and Research [BMBF] various processes that were previously very
2018), and at the beginning of 2021, it made another carbon-intensive – towards more climate-
approximately 2 billion euros available for funding friendly processes. This includes, for example,
demonstration setups (Federal Ministry of Education the production of “green” ammonia, with a
and Research [BMBF] 2021; Faz.net 2021). significantly lower energy input than the previous
Haber-Bosch process, or a new and more efficient
Emerging Issues: method for producing green hydrogen. Both
Since universally applicable quantum computers processes would help to produce emission-free
have not yet been realised, there is currently a debate fuels for shipping and aviation and help to
about individual potential fields of application decarbonise the transport sector (Bobier et al.
for quantum computers. Areas of application that 2020).
could be realised in the future in the context of
sustainability or with a view to environmental ▸ The energy-intensive production of materials
impacts would be, for example, (natural) scientific can probably be optimised or replaced with
simulations, the contribution to decarbonisation of quantum computing. Through the expanded
the energy system and the solution of optimisation simulation possibilities, optimised chemical
problems in industry. formulas for these materials can be developed.
Concrete or steel, the production of which is very
1. (Natural) scientific simulations energy-intensive, could possibly be replaced,
Quantum computers could be used to simulate, for which would in turn have a positive effect on
example, chemical processes or material properties. the environmental balance of buildings, for
For instance, researchers from ETH Zurich and example (Bobier et al. 2020; Uminski 2020).
Microsoft Research have succeeded in calculating the Another example is the use of improved materials
complex chemical nitrogenase reaction (Bergamin in batteries. This could extend battery life by
2017). Nitrogenase is important for making nitrogen, performing better (Mende and Horstmann
which is essential for many biological processes, 2021) and not decomposing. In the QuESt
biologically available7. The improved understanding project (Quantum Computer Material Design for
of such chemical reactions can help with the Electrochemical Energy Storage and Converters
development of new solutions in many fields of with Innovative Simulation Techniques; Mende
application, not least in the fight against climate and Horstmann 2021) research is being conducted
change. on such new materials whose properties are
simulated with the help of quantum computers.
In order to demonstrate the diverse possibilities, In the long term, this project aims to develop
various applications are presented here as examples: long-lasting batteries with good ranges for
electromobility.
▸ Quantum computing makes complex physical and
chemical calculations possible, for example to The examples show that the positive effects of
develop novel fertilisers or materials (Bobier et al. quantum computing in scientific simulations are
2020). indirect, but can have a great impact.
▸ The behaviour of molecules with 50 to 150 2. Decarbonisation of the energy system
atoms could be modelled, which would currently The decarbonisation of the energy system through
take a conventional computer many years. the integration of renewable energies increases
One application would be the development of the complexity of the energy system and therefore
optimised, highly efficient chemical catalysts, efficiently managing the supply and demand side
i.e. substances with which the reaction speed of also becomes more challenging. The unpredictability
chemical reactions can be improved (Bobier et al. or unreliability of sunny days and wind strengths
2020; Uminski 2020). This could revolutionise in the operation of solar plants or wind turbines in
7 In order for nitrogen to exert its effect, e.g. for the growth of plants, it must be biologically available. A detailed explanation of the process can be found on the internet platform of the
German Chemical Society (GDCh) (https://faszinationchemie.de/wissen-und-fakten/news/stickstoff-unverzichtbar-fuer-mensch-tier-und-pflanze/, retrieved on 16.09.2022).
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combination with decentralised energy generation Application Consortium [QUTAC] 2021). In the future,
by private households require a sophisticated supply the solution of these problems as well as the control
and demand management (or load management). The of other complex industrial processes, e.g. fleet
balancing of supply and demand with regard to the management and route planning or manufacturing
cost or price development will therefore increasingly processes, are supposed to be found with the help
depend on the data processing capacities of the of the computing power of quantum computers.
participants (Flauger 2020). In the future, quantum Quantum computers should be able to solve these
computers will help to deal with this complexity and other optimisation problems because they can
(Khodaei 2020). This can be done by intelligent efficiently perform much more complex calculations.
algorithms that evaluate huge amounts of different
parameters simultaneously and establish the optimal In logistics, quantum computing can be used to
balance between supply and demand (Flauger 2020). calculate the fastest route for vehicles, taking into
Electric cars, for example, would thus be charged account a huge number of real-time data points about
primarily when there is a lot of electricity in the grid, traffic jams and the like (Liscouski 2021). This allows
and at the same time they would serve as buffer traffic jams to be avoided and fuel and CO2 to be
storage for days without wind (Flauger 2020). saved. The optimal management of aircraft or vehicle
fleets with little downtime or detours can also be
In the heat supply of neighbourhoods, quantum achieved through fast and complex calculations, thus
computing could lead to efficient use of heat and reducing environmental impacts in terms of energy or
thus energy and CO2 savings, as various parameters space consumption, for example for parking areas.
on weather forecasts, usage patterns and building
properties of hundreds of buildings can be calculated If manufacturing processes in industry are optimised
simultaneously and in real time, and heat energy can through quantum computing and redundant sub-
be distributed in a targeted and optimised manner processes are avoided, it can lead to energy, material
(Flauger 2020). and thus CO2 savings in the industry, i.e. to positive
effects for the environment (Quantum Technology
3. Solving optimisation problems in industry and Application Consortium [QUTAC] 2021). At the
Automotive companies such as Volkswagen are same time, optimisation of processes always harbours
faced with the challenge of optimising the efficiency the potential (or the risk) that production capacities
such as the route planning problem, whether to are increased or logistics services expanded – and
improve supplier logistics or the vehicle guidance thus environmental benefits fall victim to the
of autonomous vehicles (Quantum Technology and
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rebound effect. Minimising this risk could be the task
of a forward-looking environmental policy.
Conclusion for environmental policy and research:
Quantum computing holds potential for the future.
Whether the technology can make a substantial
contribution to making the world more sustainable,
however, remains to be seen. At present, it can be
assumed that indirect energy and emission savings
(especially of CO2) can be expected. However,
the solutions discussed so far in the applications
presented are only incremental improvements. In
principle, it must be ensured that optimisations,
e.g. of processes, do not lead to rebound effects that
cancel out the environmental benefits achieved.
Direct effects of quantum computing relate primarily
to the material and power consumption of the
quantum computers themselves. This is because
quantum computers would have to be programmed,
operated and monitored by conventional computers,
thus requiring a material-intensive surrounding
infrastructure. At the same time, energy is required
for cooling and generating data (Hossenfelder 2019).
The entrepreneurial Global Future Council on
Quantum Computing concluded that significant
energy savings can be achieved because quantum
computing can solve large-scale computational
problems with a fraction of the energy consumed by
today’s supercomputers (Global Future Council on
Quantum Computing 2020).
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2.2 Cryptocurrencies are gaining global acceptance as a digital currency
Trend: Many cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are
developing very dynamically, and more and more approved digital currencies on a global
companies as well as (digital) payment service level.
providers are accepting them as currency equivalents.
▸ From an environmental perspective,
Emerging Issues: the energy consumption of
▸ Changing relationship between environmentally traditional and currently dominant
harmful and sustainable cryptocurrencies cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin is
▸ Stablecoins with sustainable value anchor in the particularly problematic. The mining
experimental stage of cryptocurrencies also generates
▸ Cryptocurrencies are increasingly establishing large amounts of electronic waste, for
themselves as a digital means of payment which there are hardly any established
recycling cycles. Potential for improving
the ecological footprint lies, for example,
In a nutshell: in the use of renewable energies for their
operation.
▸ With the enormous growth in
value of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Co., ▸ Cryptocurrencies can be used for
cryptocurrencies have developed in various sustainable purposes, e.g. to
recent years from an experiment in promote the development of renewable
the creation of independent, digital energies or to monitor supply chains.
alternative currencies to a speculative There are also use cases that may
object. The ongoing speculative hype require environmental regulation, such
and the media attention attached to as the use of cryptocurrencies in the
it, as well as the intensive debate on metaverse8, when trading in (virtual)
cryptocurrencies by science, business, land, real estate or works of art.
politics and investors, are driving
further technical developments, the
improvement of the eco-balance of Background:
digital currencies and the creation of Cryptocurrencies are digital asset certificates that
state legal frameworks. In the medium are stored in a decentralised database, usually a
term, this could lead to cryptocurrencies blockchain. They usually have no intrinsic value but
establishing themselves as (state-) represent a perceived value. In theory, they fulfil the
typical functions of a currency. These include the
8 The Metaverse is conceived as a virtual space in which elements of the virtual and real worlds coexist or are interconnected, and in which the people of the future can communicate
and interact with each other.
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