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Shipping’s Energy
Transition:
Strategic Opportunities
in South Africa




By Global Maritime Forum      For the P4G Getting to Zero Coalition
& University College London   Partnership
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Table of Contents

            Precidency Foreword
                                                                8

            Foreword
                                                                9

            Executive Summary
                                                               11

            Glossary
                                                               19

Section 1   The Need for Maritime Decarbonization
                                                               21

Section 2   South Africa: A Maritime Nation
                                                               24

Section 3   Maritime activity and shipping emissions
                                                               27

Section 4   Harnessing South Africa’s Renewable potential
                                                               38

Section 5   Policy framework & Climate Ambition
                                                               41

Section 6   Opportunities: Business Case Studies
                                                               47

Section 7   Finance and Investment Requirements
                                                               57

Section 8   Recommendations
                                                               60

            References
                                                               69

ANNEX I     Shipping Geospatial Model: Technical information
                                                               81
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Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




About the Getting to Zero Coalition

The Getting to Zero (GtZ) Coalition, a partnership between the Global Maritime
Forum and World Economic Forum, is a community of ambitious stakeholders from
across the maritime, energy, infrastructure and financial sectors, and supported
by key governments, IGOs and other stakeholders, who are committed to the
decarbonization of shipping.

The ambition of the Getting to Zero Coalition is to have commercially viable ZEVs
operating along deep-sea trade routes by 2030, supported by the necessary
infrastructure for scalable net zero-carbon energy sources including production,
distribution, storage, and bunkering.



About Partnering for Green Growth and the Global Goals 2030

The Partnering for Green Growth and the Global Goals 2030 (P4G) is a global
delivery mechanism pioneering green partnerships to build sustainable and resilient
economies. The P4G mobilizes a global ecosystem of 12 partner countries and 5
organizational partners to unlock opportunities for 66 partnerships working in five
SDG areas: food and agriculture, water, energy, cities and circular economy.



About the Global Maritime Forum

The Global Maritime Forum (GMF) is an international not-for-profit organization
dedicated to shaping the future of global seaborne trade to increase sustainable
long-term economic development and human wellbeing.



About Friends of Ocean Action

Friends of Ocean Action is a unique group of over 55 global leaders from business,
international organizations, civil society, science and academia who are fast-
tracking scalable solutions to the most pressing challenges facing the ocean.
It is hosted by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the World
Resources Institute.



About the World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is the International Organization for Public-Private
Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business, cultural and
other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. It was
established in 1971 as a not-for-profit foundation and is headquartered in Geneva,
Switzerland. It is independent, impartial and not tied to any special interests.




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Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




About Environmental Defense Fund

Environmental Defense Fund Europe is an affiliate of Environmental Defense Fund
(EDF), a leading international non-profit organisation that creates transformative
solutions to the most serious environmental problems. Since 1967, EDF has used
science, economics, law and innovative private-sector partnerships to bring a new
voice for practical solutions.



About University College London

University College London (UCL) Energy Institute Shipping Group aims to accelerate
the shipping transition to an equitable, globally sustainable energy system through
world-class shipping research, education and policy support. The group specialises
in multi-disciplinary research anchored in data analytics and advanced modelling of
the maritime sector.



About International Association of Ports and Harbours

The International Association of Ports and Harbours (IAPH) was formed in 1955
and over the last sixty years has grown into a global alliance representing over 180
members ports and 140 port-related businesses in 90 countries. The principal aim
of IAPH revolves around the promotion of the interests of Ports worldwide, building
strong member relationships and sharing best practices among our members.



About UMAS

UMAS delivers consultancy services and undertakes research for a wide range
of clients in the public and private sectors using models of the shipping system,
shipping big data, and qualitative and social science analysis of the policy and
commercial structure of the shipping system. UMAS’s work is underpinned by state-
of-the-art data supported by rigorous models and research practices, which makes
UMAS world-leading on three key areas; using big data to understand drivers of
shipping emissions, using models to explore shipping’s transition to a zero emissions
future and providing interpretation to key decision makers.



Layout by Housatonic.eu




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Aknowledgements                                                   Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




                  Acknowledgments
                  This report was written by Katrina Abhold (GMF) and Aly Shaw (UCL) with Aideé
                  Saucedo, Domagoj Baresic, James Stewart, Santiago Suarez De La Fuente and
                  Wendela Schim Van der Loeff (UCL); Connor Bingham (GMF); Isabelle Rojon and Camilo
                  Perico (UMAS); Rosa Esi Ennison, Noam Boussidan, and Joachim Monkelbaan (WEF).

                  The authors would like to thank the following people and organizations who have
                  helped with reviewing the report: Ingrid Sidenvall Jegou (GMF); Tristan Smith and
                  Joseph Taylor (UCL); Margi Van Gogh (WEF); and Panos Spiliotis (EDF). The authors
                  would like to thank local stakeholders and members of the P4G-GtZ Coalition
                  Partnership project’s National Committee for South Africa for their continual input
                  and feedback to the project and report draft.

                  The project partners are grateful for the P4G’s financial contribution to the project.

                  To cite this report, please use: Abhold et al. (2022). Shipping’s Energy Transition:
                  Strategic Opportunities in South Africa. Report for P4G-Getting to Zero Coalition
                  Partnership project.


                  Local stakeholders and members of the P4G-GtZ Coalition Partnership Project’s
                  National Committee for South Africa.



                   Name                         Position                         Organization
                   Andrew Etzinger              General Manager                  ESKOM
                   Anteneh Meseret Gelaw        Africa Regional Manager          P4G
                   Catherine Scholtz            Co-founder                       African Hydrogen Partnership
                   Dumisani Ntuli               Chief Director Maritime          Department of Transport
                                                Transport Policy & Legislation
                   Ernesta Swanepoel            International Environmental      Ernesta Swanepoel
                                                Law Specialist
                   Hendrik Louw                 Acting CEO                       Northern Cape Economic
                                                                                 Development Trade and
                                                                                 Investment Promotion Agency
                                                                                 (NCEDA)
                   Ian Norman Fraser            Chairman                         African Hydrogen Partnership
                   Jak Koseff                   Deputy Director-General:         Gauteng Department of
                                                Economic Planning &              Economic Development
                                                Development                      (GDED)
                   Jonathan DeBasc              Managing Director: Thermal       Engie
                                                – Desalination – Hydrogen -
                                                Storage, Africa
                   Julian Naidoo                Principal Professional Officer: City of Cape Town (formerly)
                                                Renewable Energy & Energy
                                                Efficiency, Sustainable
                                                Energy Markets




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Aknowledgements                                                  Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




                   Name                        Position                         Organization
                   Kaashifah Beukes            CEO                              Saldanha Bay Industrial
                                                                                Development Zone (SBIDZ)
                   Kristoffer Rønde Møller     Sector Advisor                   Embassy of Denmark in South
                                                                                Africa
                   Nelson Mbatha               National Environmental           Transnet National Ports
                                               Manager                          Authority (TNPA)
                   Nico Walters                Head of Strategy and special     Transnet Port Authority
                                               Projects                         (formerly)
                   Noxolo Ncayo                Managing Director                OceanEcon Consulting (PTY)
                                                                                LTD
                   Odwa Mtati                  CEO                              South African International
                                                                                Maritime Institute (SAIMI)
                   Peter Lye                   Global Head of Shipping          Anglo American
                   Rebecca Maserumule          Chief Director of Hydrogen       Department of Science and
                                               and Energy                       Innovation
                   Richard Martin Humphrey     Lead Transport Economist,        The World Bank
                                               Global Lead for Transport and
                                               Regional Integration
                   Saliem Fakir                Executive Director               The African Climate
                                                                                Foundation
                   Simon Christopher Bergulf    Director Regulatory Affairs     A.P. Moller - Maersk
                   Thomas Roos                 Senior Research Engineer         Council for Scientific and
                                                                                Industrial Research
                   Vernon Keller               Deputy Chief Operations          South African Maritime Safety
                                               Officer                          Authority




                  Disclaimer


                  This report is from the P4G - Getting to Zero Coalition Partnership project, a project
                  between the Global Maritime Forum, the Friends of Ocean Action, the World Economic
                  Forum, University College of London, Environmental Defense Fund, and the
                  International Association of Ports and Harbours. The views expressed are those of
                  the authors alone and do not represent the opinions or views of the partners involved.




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Aknowledgements                                                 Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




                  Foreword
                  Office of the Presidency

                  The Office of the Presidency welcomes the release of this report as an important
                  contribution to South Africa’s journey towards a green hydrogen-based economy.
                  Decarbonizing South African industry is essential to meeting the major challenges
                  the nation is facing, enabling a just transition to new cleaner forms of energy, and
                  sustainably future-proofing the wider economy for decades to come.

                  The maritime industry can be an important player in this transition, as a large
                  potential offtaker and carrier of these fuels and moreover a bridge to other land-
                  based sectors and geographies with increasing demands for alternative fuels.

                  It is our hope that South African stakeholders can leverage the opportunities outlined
                  in this report, reducing emissions whilst also taking advantage of South Africa’s unique
                  position to benefit from the wider industrial transition to zero emission fuels globally.

                  Because of the multi-sectoral nature of the green hydrogen potential in South Africa,
                  the Presidency will play a convening and coordinating role to enable the aggregation
                  of all expertise and interests across various government departments.

                  More work and collaboration will be needed to achieve this and ultimately ensure that
                  international maritime decarbonization can truly drive and contribute towards our
                  wider national ambitions.




                         Mr. Mondli Gungubele
                       Minister in the Presidency
                       Republic of South Africa




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Foreword                                                 Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




           Foreword
           South Africa is well positioned to benefit from international maritime
           decarbonization due to its large renewable capacity and unique location sitting at
           the gateway between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tapping into this global energy
           transition holds the potential to accelerate the transition to cleaner forms of energy
           across the economy, creating several opportunities for the country.

           In supporting national efforts towards greening and future proofing the economy,
           South Africa could seek to also leverage the opportunities surrounding maritime
           decarbonization to achieve wider national ambitions. This includes promoting
           national and international collaborations in research and development, advancing
           climate action, moving to a just transition through decarbonizing industry,
           developing a strong national renewable energy market, tapping into markets and
           increasing export potential, regional development, job creation, energy and water
           security, and local air quality.

           To realize this, there is a need for South Africa to support the development of
           policy levers, capable of facilitating and effectively contributing to decarbonizing
           the maritime sector. This would require more clearly defining national objectives
           to ensure that benefits are realized, unlocking potential value chains, as well as
           supporting and advancing international policies capable of accelerating the just
           transition to zero emission fuels globally.

           As local stakeholders and members of the National Committee, we welcome the
           findings outlined in this report and call on relevant actors to engage further around
           realizing these opportunities for South Africa.




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Foreword                              Shipping’s Energy Transition: Strategic Opportunities in South Africa




    Jenitha Badul     Simon Bergulf     Kaashifah Beukes                      Jonathan DeBasc




     Saliem Fakir     Hendrik Louw         Richard Martin                        Vernon Keller
                                            Humphreys




Rebecca Maserumule    Nelson Mbatha          Odwa Mtati                         Dumisani Ntuli




   Kristoffer Rønde   Thomas Roos       Catherine Scholtz
        Møller

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