Dear Mr De Masi,
On 24 April 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) received your application for public access to[1]:
- all documents and electronic communications by the members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank/the Executive Board of the ECB from 2022 and 2023 which pertain to the effect of corporate profits on inflation rates.
In light of a second request you had filed at the same time, you agreed to a sequential processing of the requests, accordingly this one would be processed second. In line with this agreement, the ECB informed you on 24 May 2023, that it would start processing this request. On 26 June 2023, the ECB extended the time limit for its reply by an additional 20 working days in accordance with Article 7(3) of Decision ECB/2004/3<
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02004D0003(01)-20150329> of the European Central Bank due to an exceptionally high workload.
1. The ECB’s transparency in monetary policy
As a preliminary remark we would like to emphasise, that, from its establishment, the ECB demonstrated its commitment to transparency and aimed at providing the general public, its stakeholders and the financial market participants with all relevant information on its strategy, assessments and policy decisions as well as its procedures in an open, clear and timely manner. For this purpose, it evaluates regularly whether further information can be published, without jeopardising the effective achievement of its mandate. Several channels are used to provide the public with elaborate information on monetary policy decisions and operations.
One of the major transparency steps introduced as of 2015 is the publication of the ‘monetary policy accounts<
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/html/index.en.html>’. Through the publication of the monetary policy accounts, the ECB’s Governing Council aspires to be as transparent as possible, explaining to the public the reasoning and exchange of arguments that lead to the adoption of its monetary policy decisions, whilst observing the protection afforded to its proceedings under Article 10.4 of the Protocol (No 4) on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank (“Statute”) and under Article 23.1 of the Rules of Procedure of the ECB[2]<
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/summary/european-central-bank-rules-of-procedure.html>. In the same vein, the ECB also publishes in real time the Monetary Policy Statement, which is explained during a press conference that immediately follows the ECB’s monetary policy meetings, including a transcript of the Question and Answer session. In addition, the economic and monetary information which forms the basis for those Governing Council monetary policy decisions, is also released to the public by the ECB two weeks after each Governing Council monetary policy meeting in the Economic Bulletin. Furthermore, speeches and interviews given by members of the Executive Board, transcripts of the hearings of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, attended by President Lagarde and the letters from President Lagarde responding to questions from the Members of the European Parliament, and the feedback statements on the input provided by the European Parliament as part of its Resolutions on the ECB’s Annual Report are made publicly available through our website. These documents also include - as the case may be - pertinent information on the effect of corporate profits on inflation rates.
2. Documents and communications by members of the Governing Council and the Executive Board pertaining to the effect of corporate profits on inflation rates
As regards the topic of your request, we refer in particular to the monetary policy accounts of the meetings of June 2022, March 2023 and June 2023 and the latest Eurosystem staff projections for the euro area, of June 2023[3]. In addition, we refer in particular to the latest issue of the Economic Bulletin which contains several boxes and articles dealing specifically with the topic of your request, such as the box on how unit profits contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures[4], or the one on new evidence on corporate profits, investment and financing conditions based on firms’ earning calls[5], or of selling price expectations of firms based on the SAFE survey to firms[6]. The first box analyses the impact that profits have had on domestic inflation on the basis of some measures, including unit profits derived from the national accounts and profit indicators derived from institutional sector accounts, which are closer to business profits, and how the current signals from unit profits compare with the signals from mark-ups and profit margin indicators derived from corporate accounts. The second box analyses firm’s sentiments regarding their profits, investment and financing conditions over the 12 months as of March‑April 2023 (when the survey was conducted), with firms in sectors most affected by the reopening of the economy after the pandemic showing more buoyant sentiments. The third box reports firms’ intentions regarding price increases over the next 12 months, with firms in retail sectors and firms with no previous large price increases showing more willingness to increase them.
Finally, we kindly invite you to consult the speeches and interviews by the members of the Executive Board some of which are particularly relevant to your request, such as the lecture by Philip Lane at Trinity College on 6 March 2023 and his interview with Die Zeit, published on 29 March 2023[7], or the two speeches of Isabel Schnabel delivered at the IV Edition Foro La Toja and at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management[8]. The two speeches by Isabel Schnabel, delivered in 2022, stress the cost channel of price increases at a time when bottlenecks in the global supply chains and increases in energy prices greatly increased the costs of manufacturing firms all over the world, which allowed euro area firms to increase their prices with more ease than in previous periods. The two speeches by Philip Lane, delivered in 2023, stress instead the surge in demand for some sectors after the post-pandemic reopening of the economy, which led to supply shortages for the services and goods affected and an increase in price pressures. The second of these two speeches makes the additional point that profit margins are expected to be compressed over the next few years and help mitigate the expected increase in labour costs and hence dampen down inflation, in line with the narrative in the June 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections referred to earlier.
Any other specific communications from members of the Governing Council or Executive Board during the Governing Council meetings, going beyond what has been made publicly available, are reflected in the proceedings of those meetings and cannot be disclosed as the ECB is precluded from doing so by Article 10.4 of the Statute and under Article 23.1 of the Rules of Procedure of the ECB<
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/summary/european-central-bank-rules-of-procedure.html>. We recall that the confidentiality imposed by these provisions is absolute, as a result of which the Governing Council cannot make its proceedings public. This protection has several objectives: (i) to protect the independence of the ECB and, in particular, the personal independence of the members of the Governing Council; (ii) to give space for open, frank and lively discussions, deliberations among the members of the Governing Council and subsequent decision-making; (iii) to reinforce the nature of the Governing Council as a collegiate decision-making body composed of experts with joint responsibility; and (iv) to reinforce the concept of the singleness of monetary policy. Any disclosure going beyond what is currently proactively published by the ECB in this regard, would risk having an impact on the expectations, behaviours and decisions of market participants as the documents relate to issues that currently are still highly monetary policy relevant. As regards all remaining elements and information there is a need for the ECB to protect its functional independence in assessing macro-economic conditions and deciding on the monetary policy stance, which it considers best suited to achieve its mandate.
Nonetheless, the economic bulletin and the monetary policy accounts effectively and comprehensively reflect the financial, economic and monetary briefings that are at the basis of the Governing Council’s policy decisions, as well as the reasoning and exchange of views that took place on the basis of those briefings to the greatest extent possible.
We trust that you will find this information useful and would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your understanding and patience in this matter.
Please note that a German translation for information purposes is being prepared and will be sent to you in due course.
1 Please note that your request is governed by Decision ECB/2004/3. Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 does not apply to the ECB. Additionally, regarding Regulation (EC) No 1367/2006, we were unable to identify an environmental aspect that would warrant the application of this Regulation to your request.
2 Decision ECB/2004/2 of 19 February 2004 adopting the Rules of Procedure of the European Central Bank (OJ L 80, 18.3.2004, p. 33), as last amended by Decision ECB/2016/27 (OJ L 258, 24.9.2016, p. 17).
3 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of 8 – 9 June 2023,
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2022/html/ecb.mg220707~d5c3246061.en.html, Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of 15 – 16 March 2023,
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2023/html/ecb.mg230420~e8043d2d3d.en.html, Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of 14 – 15 June 2023,
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2023/html/ecb.mg230713~f7e54fdb87.en.html and Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections,
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202306_eurosystemstaff~6625228e9f.en.html.
4 “How have unit profits contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures?”, prepared by Elke Hahn, published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 4/2023.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202304_03~705befadac.en.html
5 “Earnings calls: new evidence on corporate profits, investment and financing conditions”, Prepared by Malin Andersson, Pedro Neves and Carolina Nunes, Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 4/2023
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202304_02~40e3556f39.en.html
6 “Selling price expectations of firms ‒ evidence from the SAFE”, prepared by Annalisa Ferrando, Asger Munch Gronlund and Erzsebet Judit Rariga, published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 4/2023.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202304_05~088a7a23f8.en.html
7 Lecture by Philip Lane on Underlying inflation at Trinity College Dublin (Dublin, 6 March 2023),
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230306~57f17143da.en.html or interview of Philip Lane with Die Zeit - 29 March 2023, conducted on 22 March by Kolja Rudzio
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2023/html/ecb.in230329~b8fe0aae15.en.html.
8 Speech by Isabel Schnabel at a panel on the “Fight against inflation” at the IV Edition Foro La Toja, or the speech on the globalisation of inflation by Isabel Schnabel, at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management (Vienna, 11 May 2022);
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2022/html/ecb.sp220930~9dac17b1fe.en.html and
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2022/html/ecb.sp220511_1~e9ba02e127.en.html.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen,